Narendra Modi is poised to take oath as prime minister for the record third term as Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured a simple majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha. The election results announced on June 4, however, indicated that the NDA had not achieved the landslide victory that most exit polls had predicted.
The NDA was hovering around 292 seats as of 9 pm, according to Election Commission of India numbers. The opposition INDIA bloc was leading in 232 seats, again belying all exit poll predictions. A party or a coalition needs to win at least 272 seats to come to power at the Centre.
The only prime minister to have had three terms in office was Jawaharlal Nehru. Jawaharlal Nehru served as Prime Minister of India for a period of 16 years and 286 days from 1947 until 1964. Nehru was elected prime minister after the Congress party won the first general elections in 1951-52 and then in 1957 and 1962.
PM Modi addressed BJP workers, along with senior leaders, at the party's headquarters in New Delhi on June 4 evening.
“PM Modi has always led the country, the party and the people of the nation from the front, and I welcome him here today. I also thank the NDA partners and their workers, and the BJP workers who worked hard over the last few months and helped the NDA win (the elections)," BJP chief JP Nadda said at the event.
In 2019, the NDA had won 353 seats with BJP bagging 303 of them. The opposition's UPA alliance had won 91 seats with the Congress party bagging 52 of them.
INDIA Shines
Of the 133 seats that the INDIA bloc was leading on Tuesday evening, the Congress was leading in 99 seats. The numbers are a substantial improvement over the Congress party's tally in 2014 and 2019. In the 2019 general elections, the Congress party won 52 seats while in 2019 it secured 52 seats.
The biggest shock on June 4 results came from Uttar Pradesh, the bellwether seat of general elections. The INDIA bloc, comprising the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, was leading in 43 of the 80 seats while the BJP was leading at 33 seats. In 2019, the BJP had won 62 seats in Uttar Pradesh.
“People have unanimously stated that we do not want Narendra Modi, Amit Shah to run the country," Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said on Tuesday evening. Gandhi won the election from both seats – Wayanad and Raebareli.
Nitish, Naidu Kingmakers
Janata Dal United chief and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Telugu Desam Party chief Chandrababu Naidu can play the kingmakers. The BJP government, if it comes to power, will be at the mercy of these two leaders. The two leaders have a history of switching sides between the BJP and the Congress.
The JD-U was leading in 12 of the 40 seats of Bihar, while the TDP was leading in 16 of 25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh. Both the parties are currently with the NDA but if they switch sides, the NDA numbers will come down by at least 28 seats, going by the latest trends.
BJP sweeps Odisha
Among other firsts, the BJP leads in 19 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha. Remember, the Odisha assembly election was held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls.
Of the 147 constituencies, the BJP was leading in 73 seats, while the ruling BJD was ahead only in 58, according to the Election Commission of India. This ends Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik's dream to come to power for the sixth time.
Election Results 2024: Here's what to expect from Indian stock market and what should be your trading strategy
After witnessing a major bloodbath on June 4 due to Bharatiya Janata Party's failure to secure a halfway mark majority in the Lok Sabha elections 2024, the Indian stock market will now turn its focus to the core macroeconomic factors and upcoming Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy meeting.
The Lok Sabha elections results 2024 led to a major nervousness in the stock market resulting in worst market crash in four years.
The Indian stock markets had anticipated that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will win more than 300 seats. However, the election results came worse than expected and the BJP will now have to depend on the NDA alliance to form a government, rattling investors.
Nifty 50 plummeted 8.5 percent to reach its intraday low of 21,281.45, opening at 23,179.50, on Tuesday. The Sensex began trading at 76,285.78, and it fell 8.2 percent to reach 70,234.43.
Sensex concluded the day at 72,079.05, down 4,390 points, or 5.74 percent, while Nifty 50 finished the day at 21,884.50, down 1,379 points, or 5.93 percent.
“Indian equities plunged after the vote counting trends suggested a lower seat count for the ruling NDA government. We have seen a spurt in volatility, and India's VIX crossed the 31.5 level, which created more pressure on the market," said Ajay Menon, MD & CEO, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL).
Where's Market Headed in The Coming Days?
Amisha Vora, Chairperson & MD, Prabhudas Lilladher, says that the market is likely to shed ‘Modi Premium’, which will lead to correction in PSU and infrastructure stocks.
“Once this turbulence stabilizes, attention will shift to the core macro factors affecting India. Investors should brace for volatility in the short term, but the underlying fundamentals of India's growth story remain strong," Vora said.
Menon believes the broader market may turn volatile as sentiments get hit, but a major trend of the Indian equity market is expected to revive after the cooldown of volatility over the next couple of days.
“We expect the volatility around the outcome to reduce over the next few days and market focus to return on macro and fundamentals which continue to remain strong. Once the new government is formed, it will present its first and full budget for FY25 in the next few weeks, where themes like capex, manufacturing, rural, consumption, and credit lending will be back in focus. The rural and consumption theme would also pick up pace with the onset and progress of Monsoon, which is predicted to be above normal this year," Menon said.
Read Also: Lok Sabha Election Results 2024
While the market volatility may continue in the near term, he suggests retail investors should take this correction as an opportunity to accumulate quality names in 3-4 tranches. Over the next few days, the narrative around government formation and RBI monetary policy would take centre stage.
